The thing is, Redick need not win awards like that to command top dollar. Only Vince Carter and O.J. Mayo make less than Redick (yet have a higher PER). Mayo is on a $4 million contract and Carter makes $3 million a season.
That indicates that Redick’s value may not be much higher than his current contract. However, PER is not the ultimate indicator of player performance (though it is a great measure), and a number of NBA 2-guards are paid significantly more to play far inferior basketball.
Brooklyn Nets combo guard Joe Johnson is on max contract and ranks No. 20, while the New Orleans Hornets’ Eric Gordon (No. 16) also is not performing as well as Redick, but Gordon has the ever-lasting potential of what could have been (?) an All-Star career. The jury is still out on Gordon, but Redick’s value is well-established.
The Duke legend has improved every season as a pro and is still just 28 years old. He’s about to hit the heart his prime. The real question is whether Redick can evolve into the type of player that can easily serve as a starter and No. 2 or No. 3 option on a contending team.
Or is Redick simply a third guard and rotation player?
Even—and perhaps especially—if the latter is the case, a good contending team is where the sharpshooter belongs. He needs to be on a squad that can maximize his talents and give him a chance to win.
That isn’t being done in Orlando.
Redick is playing phenomenal basketball but is toiling away on a team that will finish near the NBA’s cellar. The talent collection developing in Orlando is great, but Redick deserves to win now, while he’s at the peak of his prowess.
As for determining his ultimate market value—it’s difficult. As the PER rankings illustrate, a number of players are paid significantly more to play at a lower level, while the Dallas Mavericks have snagged two bargain players that rank ahead of Redick.
This isn’t to suggest that Redick should be paid on the level of max players Wade, Harden, Bryant (beyond max), or even a big contract like Manu Ginobili ($14 million this season and an expiring contract, too).
But it seems very reasonable that Redick is in for a modest increase in income. Truly, if he were to receive a contract that accurately matched his talents as a player, something in the neighborhood of $7 to $9 million sounds about right.
Teams will be willing to pay it, but the Magic likely won’t. That’s what makes it quite likely that J.J. Redick is dealt, despite reports by the Orlando Sentinel from Redick that he isn’t “actively being shopped.”
That only indicates the Magic don’t have to shop Redick. Teams will come and do the knocking themselves, and Rob Hennigans line will be ringing with frequency. But teams want assurance Redick will re-sign.
Determining what he may desire as a salary—and what he’s worth—is far more difficult, in a league where so many players are overpaid or underpaid.
If all things weigh out in a reasonable world, Redick should be paid $7 to $9 million. We’ll see.