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Two areas to watch for tropical development

20 June 2017

It has been named Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.

Right now, a very disorganized cluster of clouds, shower and storms is slowly drifting northwestward over the northern Caribbean.

Weakening is expected mid-week as the system moves into the Caribbean and runs into more wind shear.

Tropical outlook reports from the National Weather Service's Hurricane Center on Saturday afternoon forecasted a chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours as low, at 30 percent.

Because of the ragged structure of the storm, a feature not uncommon with tropical or subtropical systems that develop during this time of year, heavy rains and flooding will be a threat regardless of how much the storm system can develop. This is hampering further development of the system, which will keep it weak.

A tropical system that's drenching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is being watched for development and has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical storm or depression in the Gulf within the next two days.

Advisories have been issued for what it calls Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, about 485 miles east-southeast of Trinidad, moving to the west at 23 mph.

A track to our east would mean little rainfall here but anything to our west would put us on the wetter side of the system.

Forecasters expect the Atlantic storm to continue strengthening through the day but say it will likely weaken if it interacts with land over Venezuela. As of now, the models are trying to forecast something that doesn't exist.

It is way too early to say with any confidence exactly where this system will track. It could also help bring heavy rains to the Tampa Bay area early this week.

But will the storm pick up enough wind speed to turn into a hurricane?

It is expected to move over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico later Monday and Tuesday, where a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form.

A tropical storm warning was in effect for the Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, the NHC said.

A second tropical wave (#1 on map) continued to track westward across the central Atlantic on Sunday morning and may get its own visit from the Hurricane Hunters on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 miles per hour (65 km/h) with higher gusts.