We were dealing with steady rain for south Florida for the majority of last week with tropical moisture that did not get organized enough to become a named system. "Right now, we think it will stay as a subtropical storm".
"However, once over water, it should develop into an organised tropical or subtropical storm system during the weekend". Expect 50% chances for afternoon storms, especially West of I-95. Only a few have grown into hurricanes, storms with peak winds of at least 74 miles per hour. The barometric pressure was still 1005mb. But the first one was named Andrew.
The first tropical storm of the year is about to form in the Gulf of Mexico.
What is a tropical storm watch?
The NHC also released detailed graphics tracking the storm's path to the US mainland and its potential wind speeds.
Forecasters said that models take it northward through Sunday, and some of them turn it to the northwest by late Sunday with a track taking it near the Mississippi Sound. It could make landfall anywhere between the MS and Alabama coasts. A storm of this type is not unusual for this time period and region.
If it upgrades into a tropical storm with winds at or greater than 39 miles per hour, it will receive the name "Alberto".
The weather Friday and even most of Saturday really won't be impacted by this yet other than a high rip current risk at beaches.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate.
Flood watches already have been issued from Alabama to Georgia.
District hydrologists said its 16-county coverage area has received about 7 inches of rainfall since May 1, which has helped the entire area recover from the eight-month dry season. The system will have rain impacts far outside the National Hurricane Center's projected path.
As the system begins to slowly move north, showers and a few thunderstorms with heavy rain will gradually increase from the Keys into South Florida.
The National Weather Service said there was a 90 percent chance of it becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone in the Gulf by the weekend.
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