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What are the ramifications of United States exiting Iran nuclear deal?

10 May 2018
What are the ramifications of United States exiting Iran nuclear deal?

The Trump administration is making plans to "prod" and "cajole" US allies to stop doing business with Iran, a senior State Department official told NPR on Wednesday.

"If they do, there will be very severe consequences", the President said Wednesday during a Cabinet meeting.

Monica Malik, the chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, said: "We believe that the main potential impact on Iranian oil exports will come from sanctions on foreign banks transacting with the Central Bank of Iran". But Trump said, "The Iran deal is defective at its core".

And he's reimposing sanctions on Tehran.

Mattis declared that Iran failed to reduce its "malicious activities" in and around the Middle East as a result of the agreement reached between Tehran and US -backed world powers - the U.K., France, Germany, Russia, and China - in July 2015.

"We have experienced this before, but though we are wiser from the last experience we are really on uncertain ground here", an Indian official said on condition of anonymity, referring to United Nations sanctions reinforced by then U.S. president Barack Obama and European Union curbs that were lifted after the 2015 deal. If Israel did launch pre-emptive attacks on Iran's nuclear sites, would Mr Trump add more than words in support?

2015 nuclear deal imposed restrictions on Iran's nuke plans while lifting most USA and global sanctions.

Meanwhile, French government spokesperson Benjamin Griveaux told reporters that the EU may go to the World Trade Organization (WTO) if the USA economic strategy towards Iran causes collateral damage to European interests.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani asserted his commitment to the deal.

Non-U.S. signatories to the agreement have suggested that they intend to remain committed to the deal even after Trump's decision.

Mr Macron said on April 25: "I think we (will). work towards a (new) deal, an overall deal that will enable us to deal with the nuclear issue, but also treat it together with other issues which are not being dealt with so far".

Senior European figures insisted on Wednesday that the deal was not dead, despite the United States withdrawing from it.

The administration said it would re-impose sanctions on Iran immediately but allow grace periods for businesses to wind down activity.

Traditional foes Saudi Arabia and Israel - both US allies - have found common ground as critics of the 2015 deal, which was brokered by Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, Germany and the European Union.

All it did was open up the possibility of Western firms doing business in Iran.

President Trump recently made the historic decision to pull America out of the controversial Iran Deal enacted by his predecessor.

While Trump supporters praised the move, analysts and critics said it undermines Washington's credibility in future negotiations - particularly with North Korea - and potentially empowers the very hardliners in Iran that Trump vilified in his remarks.

Saudi journalist Mashari Althaydi wrote in a column published on the Al-Arabiya news website that Iran's possession of nuclear weapons would make it necessary for Saudi Arabia to possess similar weapons for deterrence.

And, of course, Israelis have long believed the nuclear deal with Iran was only ever a delaying tactic that gave cover and a legitimacy for a regime that would continue its quest for nuclear weapons.

Weakened by Trump's decision, Rouhani's survival now depends on his ability to deliver some of the changes sought by his moderate supporters - without alienating Khamenei's powerful hardline allies.