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Oil Prices Are Too High

14 June 2018
Oil Prices Are Too High

President TrumpDonald John TrumpWhat you need to know about Tuesday's elections Danny Tarkanian wins Nevada GOP congressional primary Laxalt, Sisolak to face off in Nevada governor's race MORE focused on high oil prices in a tweet on Wednesday, again laying blame on OPEC. Crude inventories fell by 4.1 million barrels in the week to June 8, exceeding analysts' expectations for a decrease of 2.7 million barrels.

Trump's grousing follows reports suggesting the oil exporters group was already planning to open the spigots, an outcome the International Energy Agency hinted at in its monthly report released earlier Wednesday.

USA production rose to 10.9 million barrels a day in the week, but Kilduff said the market appeared able to absorb the increase.

Yet, even with the 1.8 million-bpd production rollback, the total OPEC/non-OPEC level would still be around 1 million bpd below the October 2016 levels, because some producers, notably Saudi Arabia, have cut more than intended, while others, most notably Venezuela, have seen involuntary production declines and are unable to lift production, the person told Bloomberg.

Some estimates put the post-crash reduction in investment by major oil companies such as Exxon Mobil, Chevron and BP at more than $1 trillion.

The country boosted production after the USA lifted sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program in 2016, but analysts expect output to fall when the Trump administration's decision to withdraw from the deal takes full effect later this year.

The IEA said it expects global oil demand to grow 1.4 million bpd this year, and in 2019, and will top 100 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2018. "The boom in United States oil and gas production gives us greater leverage against Opec", an official said. The IEA said OPEC countries in the Middle East could quickly boost production by 1.1 million bpd.

"The market will be finely balanced next year, and vulnerable to prices rising higher in the event of further disruption", the IEA said in its monthly report. "It is possible that the very small number of countries with spare capacity beyond what can be activated quickly will have to go the extra mile".

OPEC and various non-OPEC oil producers are set to convene in Vienna later in the month to discuss future production.

"Prices will be above $150 in less than two years", he tweeted on Wednesday.

Earlier this month, Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration asked OPEC and Russian Federation to boost oil output.

Various sources show that "considerable uncertainty as to world oil demand and non-OPEC supply prevails", OPEC said, leading to a wide range of estimates for the remainder of 2018.