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NOAA Predicts Warmer Winter for Much of the US

22 October 2018
NOAA Predicts Warmer Winter for Much of the US

"We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter", said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, in a statement.

The likelihood of El Nino, meteorologists say, 70-75%.

On October 18th, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center released the 2018/2019 winter outlook- December to February- for temperature, precipitation and drought.

The Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley all have an equal chance to see below, near or above average temperatures.

According to the weather service's precipitation outlook, wetter than average conditions are favored for southern states stretching into Virginia.

It is also predicting lots of snow "for the Great Lakes states, Midwest, and central and northern New England, with the majority of it falling in January and February".

Other climate patterns that can affect winter weather are challenging to predict on a seasonal time scale.

2018-19 Winter Outlook map for temperature.

In fact, Halper said, nowhere in the U.S.is expected to be colder than normal; continuing a national trend over the past several years.

"Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the southern tier of the USA, and up into the Mid-Atlantic", NOAA said in a statement.

Along with Michigan, Halper said northern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Wisconsin are expected to be drier than normal, along with parts of Idaho, Hawaii and Montana, too.

Drought conditions are forecast to stay put this winter in the Southwest, Southern California, central Great Basin, central Rockies, Northern Plains and portions of the interior Pacific Northwest.

The most severe (if at all so to speak this time) winter expects the Northern Rocky mountains, the OH valley and the region of the Great lakes. States from the Pacific Northwest through the Northern Plains and into the Northeast are likely to have above-average temperatures, the NOAA reported.

The drought outlook for is looking positive for southwestern OR, as NOAA predicts the situation will improve.

-Even during a warmer than normal winter, it will still get cold and snow is still likely to occur.